Global economy unlikely to improve significantly? UN

A United Nations report unveiled today paints a gloomy picture of the performance of the global economy next year, with growth projected to be a meagre 3.1 per cent, followed by 3.5 per cent in 2012.

It adds that efforts by governments to embark on fiscal austerity can only further suppress the prospects for a faster recovery of employment.

?We are not out of the woods yet and still major risks are looming,? said Rob Vos, the Director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division of DESA, who led the team of UN economists who prepared the report.

It notes that uncoordinated monetary responses have become a source of turbulence and uncertainty in financial markets.

At 2.6 per cent in 2010, growth in the US is expected to moderate further to 2.2 per cent in 2011 before improving slightly to 2.8 per cent in 2012.

Prospects for Europe and Japan are even dimmer, the report notes.

Assuming continued, albeit moderate, recovery in Germany, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the Euro area is forecast to virtually stagnate at 1.3 per cent in 2011 and 1.9 per cent in 2012.

Japan?s initially strong rebound, fuelled by net export growth, started to falter in the course of 2010 as a result of persistent deflation and elevated public debt.

The Asian country?s economy is expected to grow by a meagre 1.1 per cent in 2011 and 1.4 per cent in 2012.

Among the economies in transition, GDP of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Georgia rebounded by about 4 per cent on average in 2010, up from the deep contraction of more than 7 per cent in 2009.

In 2011 and 2012, the pace of recovery in South-eastern Europe is expected to be rather subdued.

Developing countries in Asia, led by China and India, continue to show the strongest growth performance, but will moderate to around 7 per cent in 2011 and 2012, according to the report.

Growth in Latin America is projected to remain relatively strong at around 4 per cent, though less robust than the GDP growth of 5.6 per cent estimated for 2010.

The sub-region also benefits from strengthened economic ties with the emerging economies in Asia.

In the Middle East and other countries in Western Asia, recovery is also expected to moderate from 5.5 per cent in 2010 to 4.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.4 per cent in 2012.