India has one of the largest nuclear power programmes: US report
Washington: Suggesting that India has a sizable nuclear weapons effort, a US think tank estimated India’s nuclear arsenal at around 75-125 weapons made from weapon-grade plutonium and perhaps some thermonuclear weapons.
According to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), “India has a substantial stock of nuclear weapons made from weapon-grade plutonium, and perhaps some thermonuclear weapons that rely on both weapon-grade plutonium and weapon-grade uranium”.
“An estimate of India’s nuclear arsenal can be derived by considering its weapon-grade plutonium stock,” it said. “The resulting estimate has a median of 138 nuclear weapons equivalent with a range of 110 to 175 weapons equivalent.”
ISIS said, however, the actual number of nuclear weapons India built from its stocks of weapon-grade plutonium must be less.
It said, “When accounting for the amount of plutonium in the weapons production pipelines and in reserves, it is reasonable to assume that only about 70 % of the estimated stock of weapon-grade uranium is in nuclear weapons”.
ISIS said, “Thus, the predicted number of weapons made from its weapon-grade plutonium at the end of 2014 is about 97 with a range of 77-123”. “These values are rounded to 100 nuclear weapons with a range of 75-125 nuclear weapons.”
The think tank also noted that India has one of the largest nuclear power programmes among developing nations.
The report said, utilizing plutonium produced in these power reactors and discharged in irradiated or spent fuel, India has developed a relatively large civil plutonium separation programme and an associated fast breeder reactor programme that is using that separated plutonium.
ISIS said, for its “sizeable nuclear weapons effort”, India uses “separated plutonium produced primarily in a set of small, dedicated reactors and a smaller amount produced in nuclear power reactors.”
It said, “It has a growing gas centrifuge programme able to produce significant amounts of highly enriched uranium (HEU) mostly for naval reactor fuel and perhaps for nuclear weapons, including thermonuclear weapons”.
Despite many obstacles, India has managed over several decades to put in place a relatively large nuclear weapons production complex, the report said.
ISIS said, “Its current complex can produce plutonium and highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons and nuclear powered submarines”. “It has a sophisticated missile production complex that provides the delivery systems for its nuclear weapons.”
The report said, “Indian nuclear weapons use weapon-grade plutonium. The bulk of this plutonium for nuclear weapons has come from the Cirus and Dhruva heavy water reactors, both located at the Bhabba Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Mumbai.”
ISIS cited an unnamed senior US official as saying that “after the 1998 tests, India used its civil power reactors to ‘surge’ weapon-grade plutonium production for its nuclear weapons programme.”
The report said, “India explained to US officials at that time that it needed to build up its weapons plutonium stock after the 1998 tests before it engaged in negotiations for a Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), negotiations which have still not come to fruition”.
It may have subsequently produced additional weapon-grade plutonium for nuclear weapons in its civil power reactors, it said.
The report suggested, “Although generally India is not believed to use reactor-grade plutonium in nuclear weapons, Indian nuclear experts are reported to have evaluated this plutonium’s use in nuclear weapons and India may have decided to create a reserve stock of reactor-grade plutonium for possible use in nuclear weapons”.
